In six particular states the margin of victory is expected to be slim, so it may be difficult to declare a winner until the final votes are tallied.
The following states account for 101 of the 270 electoral votes to secure a win: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Arizona
State law allows ballots here to begin being counted two weeks before Election Day, so those tallies can be released starting around 10pmET, with votes being cast in-person today following. This will be the majority of votes cast here, so it’s possible a winner could be declared on election night. Absentee ballots sent just before the election, however, may not be tallied until Thursday or Friday — in case the race is close, the winner may not be declared until early next week.
Florida
Sorting and opening envelopes begins weeks early and there is no grace period following Election Day. All early ballots should be released starting at 7:30pmET, but some counties may take longer to process if arriving just before or on Election Day. If decisive, we could know tonight, but if close, it could extend to Wednesday or Thursday.
Michigan
On Monday cities with over 25,000 residents could start processing but not counting ballots. Historically the city of Detroit has been slow, and officials there are talking about an election “week.” With Democrats expected to cast disproportionately more mail-in ballots, the early information could lean Republican, exposing a risk of misinformation. Trump could look to be leading early but lose a lead as mail-in ballots are counted beginning on Election Day. The Secretary of State has said it could be Friday before a final count is tabulated.
North Carolina
Initial results should come early, with an estimated 80% of ballots cast by mail or early, and will be released beginning at 7:30pmET when polls close. Initial results favor Democrats, and if early tallies are close, the following 20% will be influential. North Carolina also accepts mail ballots that arrive by Nov. 12 so long as they were postmarked by Election Day. The final results could take days in a close race.
Pennsylvania
Secretary of State says the “overwhelming majority” of votes will be counted by Friday. Officials can accept ballots that arrive up to 3 days after Election Day if they were postmarked on November 3. Many counties will begin processing today at 7amET, but a handful say they won’t deal with absentee ballots until Wednesday. If the race comes down to Pennsylvania’s vote, it could be days before votes are completely counted.
Wisconsin
Governor Tony Evers says he believes Wisconsin results should be completed by Wednesday morning, if not on election night. The Milwaukee County elections director says absentee ballots should be finished between 3am and 6am on Wednesday.
Check out NPR’s map analysis below:
See complete details at NPR