Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, early veepstakes leader in the Democratic Party’s race for the White House, is now rumored to be Kamala Harris’ pick for vice president. This speculation is based on the campaign’s upcoming rally schedule, not on a Harris campaign announcement.
The assumption that Shapiro “will win” is based on where the rollout is being held, but little historical data backs this assumption. The home state of the running mate does not always correspond with the location of the rollout.
The other reason why Josh Shapiro is assumed to be Harris’ choice stems from a belief that the choice for VP equals a win in the running mate’s home state, although historical campaign data since 1980 does not show this.
• 1984—Walter Mondale’s pick of Geraldine Ferraro did not clinch New York.
•1988—Lloyd Bentsen did not help Michael Dukakis take Texas.
•1996—Jack Kemp did not win New York for Bob Dole.
•2004—John Edwards did not help John Kerry in North Carolina
And…in 2012, Paul Ryan did not win Wisconsin for Mitt Romney. What the data shows is that adding Josh Shapiro to the ticket does not guarantee the Dems a win in Pennsylvania. The only two times since 1980 when the VP pick correlated to the “win” column were in 2016 when Tim Kaine helped Hillary Clinton take Virginia and in 1980 when President Jimmy Carter, although not re-elected, won his home state of Georgia plus the VP’s home state of Minnesota.
Policy review is a more accurate measure of who Kamala Harris will pick for vice president, but the mainstream media has been light to report Josh Shapiro’s policy positions. Concern is growing among Pennsylvania democrats that Shapiro has adopted some unfavorable policy positions, many of which are typically fought against by progressives. These potential liabilities are:
- Supports school choice vouchers
- Reversed previous stances on energy and climate
- Perceived flip-flop on Gaza
- Lax on sexual harassment
- Backs “aggressive” corporate tax breaks
A hot button list like that seems damning and certainly begs the question, “Can Kamala Harris win Pennsylvania without Josh Shapiro as her running mate?”
There are over 3 million public school teachers in this country who, overwhelmingly, do not support school vouchers. Will they feel betrayed if Harris asks Shapiro to join the ticket? What about the “no fossil fuels” climate activists who gained hope from President Biden’s environment-friendly policies? Fracking, an issue that Harris is on the record claiming strong objection to, is accepted in Pennsylvania. How will Kamala Harris rectify these issues if she chooses Shapiro to be her VP?
The Israel-Gaza conflict is yet another problematic area for the Democrats and Josh Shapiro has detractors in both camps. Previous positions on the conflict, and perceived flip-flops, have ignited arguments over Israel and antisemitism, not to mention that he follows the Jewish faith.
If Shapiro is tapped, another potential problem for the Democratic ticket will arise around a sexual harassment scandal that took place in the governor’s office between his legislative secretary, Mike Vereb, and a female office worker. Although Shapiro himself was not involved in the alleged sexual improprieties, how Shapiro handled the situation raised eyebrows.
“Verb, 57, abruptly stepped down in September, three weeks after Shapiro’s administration quietly agreed to pay $295,000 to settle claims from a governor’s office employee who said he’d made repeated sexual advances toward her and often spoken openly — and lewdly — about her, other staff members, and a female state senator.” The Philadelphia Inquirer
Sex scandals in politics are not new, but in a presidential campaign that quickly rolled out a dichotomy of prosecutor versus criminal, campaign watchers are concerned that Shapiro’s past involvement around a sexual harassment scandal will quickly become a liability for Kamala Harris.
Strategists have voiced concern that Kamala Harris needs to seem more moderate to attract independents and undecided voters. This typically means that a pro-business stance needs to be made public. Josh Shapiro brings this to the ticket, but at what cost? If Kamala Harris intends to continue Joe Biden’s “bottom up” economic vision, fueled by an invigorated middle class, then pro-business corporate tax cuts are a clear contrast that may cost votes.
Based on rumored consensus, Josh Shapiro is Kamala Harris’ pick because the rollout is in Philadelphia and he “equals a win” in Pennsylvania, a highly competitive state that both parties need to get 270 electoral college votes. However, in an election too important to lose, the controversies around Josh Shapiro could risk electoral college votes elsewhere. Having served the Keystone State as governor for only 18 months, maybe the best choice is to leave Shapiro in Pennsylvania, for now.
