Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, early veep-stakes leader in the Democratic Party’s race for the White House, is now rumored to be Kamala Harris’ pick for vice president. This information is not from any announcements released by the Harris campaign. Instead, it is widespread speculation based on the campaign’s upcoming rally schedule. Harris is scheduled to roll out her choice for vice president next Tuesday. The assumed proof that Shapiro is “the one” is the event’s location.
No historical evidence shows that the location where a VP candidate is rolled out corresponds with that person’s home state. To say that Josh Shapiro will be Harris’s running mate because Philadelphia is where Harris is scheduled to formally introduce her running mate is not backed by data.
The other measure being applied to claim that Josh Shapiro is Harris’ choice stems from the assumption that the VP will win their home state, even though historical campaign data since 1980 does not show this to be true.
In 1984, Walter Mondale’s pick of Geraldine Ferraro did not clinch New York.
In 1988, Lloyd Bentsen did not help Michael Dukakis take Texas.
In 1996, Jack Kemp did not win New York for Bob Dole.
In 2004, John Edwards did not help John Kerry in North Carolina.
And…
In 2012, picking Paul Ryan did not win Wisconsin for Mitt Romney.
The facts show that adding Josh Shapiro to the ticket does not guarantee Harris a win in Pennsylvania. The only two times since 1980 when the pick for vice president correlated to wins for the ticket were in 2016 when Tim Kaine helped Hillary Clinton take Virginia and in 1980. That year, President Jimmy Carter was not re-elected, but he won his home state of Georgia and the VP’s home state of Minnesota.
A review of policy is a more accurate measure of who Kamala Harris will pick for vice president. This is the area where the mainstream media has been light to report Josh Shapiro’s policy positions. Concern is growing among Pennsylvania democrats that Shapiro has adopted some unfavorable policy positions, many of which are typically fought against by progressives. These potential liabilities brought to the ticket by Gov. Shapiro are:
- Supports school choice vouchers
- Reversed previous stances on energy and climate
- Perceived flip-flop on Gaza
- Lax on sexual harassment
- Backs “aggressive” corporate tax breaks
A hot button list like that seems damning and certainly begs the question, “Can Kamala Harris win Pennsylvania without Josh Shapiro as her running mate?”
There are over 3 million unionized public school teachers across this country who, overwhelmingly, do not support school vouchers. Will they feel betrayed if Harris asks Shapiro to join the ticket? What about the “no fossil fuels” climate warriors who gained hope from the Biden administration’s environment-friendly policies? Fracking, for example, is an issue that Harris is on the record claiming strong objection to, but one that Josh Shapiro, being the governor of an energy state, accepts. How will Kamala Harris rectify this issue, and others, if she chooses Shapiro to be her VP?
The Israel-Gaza conflict is yet another problematic area for the Democrats and Josh Shapiro has detractors in both camps. He is Jewish and his previous positions on the conflict have ignited arguments over Israel and antisemitism.
If Shapiro is tapped for vice president, another potential problem for the Democratic ticket will arise around a sexual harassment scandal that took place in the governor’s office between his legislative secretary, Mike Vereb, and a female office worker. Although Shapiro had no direct involvement in the alleged sexual improprieties that may have occurred, how Shapiro handled the situation raised eyebrows.
“Verb, 57, abruptly stepped down in September, three weeks after Shapiro’s administration quietly agreed to pay $295,000 to settle claims from a governor’s office employee who said he’d made repeated sexual advances toward her and often spoken openly — and lewdly — about her, other staff members, and a female state senator.” The Philadelphia Inquirer
Sex scandals in politics are not new, but in a presidential campaign that quickly rolled out the “prosecutor versus criminal” dichotomy, campaign watchers are concerned that Shapiro’s past involvement around a sexual harassment scandal will quickly become a liability for Kamala Harris. The contradiction will instantly provide such succulent low hanging fruit that the opposition party will undoubtedly exploit the issue for political gain.
Political strategists have voiced concern that Kamala Harris needs to be seen as more moderate to attract the support of independents and undecided voters. This typically means that the ticket needs to adopt a pro-business stance. Josh Shapiro brings this to the ticket, but at what cost? If Kamala Harris intends to continue Joe Biden’s “bottom up” economic vision fueled by an invigorated middle class, then pro-business corporate tax cuts are a clear contrast that may ultimately cost the Democrats votes.
At the moment, rumored consensus is that Josh Shapiro is Kamala Harris’ choice mainly because he equals a win in Pennsylvania, a highly competitive state that both parties need to win 270 electoral college votes. In an election far too important to lose, some think Josh Shapiro is too risky. If controversies surrounding him undermine the Democrats’ ability to secure the other 251 electoral college votes they need, then Shapiro is not worth the risk. Having been the Keystone State’s governor for only 18 months, the best choice may be to leave him in Pennsylvania.
