Elections Guru Allen Lichtman says those critics who say Biden can’t win—the journalists, the political operatives, the pundits, the columnists, the Democratic pols—what do they have in common? They have zero track record predicting elections. When reached by Newsweek about Lichtman’s comments, Trump’s spokesperson Steven Cheung said via email on Saturday afternoon “Who is Allan Lichtman?”I
Day after day, countless polls are reported as news stories, polls which paint one picture, that of a specific outcome of the 2024 Presidential election. The anchors t@lk to pundits talk to cameras which point at Trump signs and an elderly Biden.
The 24/7 PR onslaught of a predicted Trump win is resulting in the very upending of Democracy that Democrats say they’re fighting. How so? The will of the voters nominating Joe Biden for a second term is being questioned by a Congress panicked into upending the will of the Democratic majority and perpetuated by a media saturated with Trump propaganda.
The Guardian, in an April edoitorial, reprinted the T/F questions he developed to use as a predictor. While he has been more successful than many polls, it’s the polls that are publicized.
“. . . . Lichtman’s theory [holds] that elections are basically votes up or down on the strength and performance of the party that holds the White House.
There are 13 true/false questions and a decision rule: if six or more keys went against the White House party, it would lose. If fewer than six went against it, it would win. These are the 13 keys, as summarised by AU’s website:
1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
And unfortunately, the media is in complicity with this overwhelming reporting about the democratic struggles, reporting all these criticisms as if they had some merit and enormously downplaying…the fact that Donald Trump is lying his way into the presidency.”
“There’s so much still up in the air. I’m waiting for the Democratic Convention to see if we get an explosion of social unrest like we saw in 1968. I don’t expect it, but that could turn the social unrest key against the administration,” he said.
