The latest hit to affordability is about to hit the paper products aisle at your grocery store, and having an ID will be of no help.
As the trade war between Canada and the US swirls out of control, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney presented a list of almost 900 goods that will face 25-50% tariffs starting September 8, and paper products, including toilet paper and facial tissues, are among the hardest hit items.
Although TP and tissues are often made domestically, manufacturers rely heavily on Canadian lumber. The US also imported $328 million worth of toilet paper from Canada in 2024.
The US accounts for more than 20% of global tissue consumption despite having only 4% of the world’s population. The average American uses 141 rolls of toilet paper per year, making them number one for No 2s globally, just ahead of Germans, each using an average of 134 rolls annually.
Procter & Gamble, the owner of Charmin toilet paper, said last year that it would have to increase prices amid tariffs that were in place at the time. Retailers, including Costco, source much of their paper products from Canada.
According to the trade publication TissueOnline, Trump’s tariff war with Canada risks triggering a shortage of TP, as it could disrupt the supply of northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) pulp used in the manufacturing process.
Roughly 30% of U.S. toilet paper and half of all paper towels rely on Canadian NBSK pulp, importing 2 million metric tons of the product last year.
Canadian pulp processors say the US wants Canadian pulp because it’s the best, and because their products are deeply integrated into their factories.
“Some of these mills in the United States, some of the big branded products, not only want softwood pulp from Canada, they want softwood pulp from this particular mill — they’ve been using it for 30 years and they will not change,” said one global pulp market analyst. “If Canadian pulp mills close because they don’t have the fiber supply, I can’t think of any other option for them — they just can’t switch the recipe around.”