Doug Sosnik, who was the White House political director during President Clinton’s successful re-election race, writes for Axios that during President Trump’s first term, the country completed a political realignment that began in 1992.
Sosnik says the electoral college map shows Trump is running on different terrain than in 2016.
The demographics are increasingly Democratic friendly, including the fastest growing voting groups, millennials and non-whites. Also abandoning the Republicans are women, more educated voters, and suburban voters.
The traditional rust belt battlegrounds of Michigan and Pennsylvania have both been hard hit by COVID-19, respectively with the fourth and fifth most deaths in the U.S., and Trump’s chances of winning Michigan have been greatly reduced.
States in the West and the South are emerging as the new Democratic base. California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington are firmly in the blue column while Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and Virginia are in stages of becoming blue states. Arizona is the state most likely to turn blue in November.
Biden’s most likely paths to 270 are as follows:
- The best option is winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.
- Win Michigan and Pennsylvania + 2 congressional districts — Nebraska 02 and Maine 02
- The complete rust belt of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Wisconsin gives Trump his best chance of the three states
- Michigan + the Sunbelt — win Michigan, Arizona, and North Carolina
- Win Florida + 1 — winning Florida would get Biden to 261, and winning any other battleground state would put him past 270
The bottom line is to win Michigan and Pennsylvania, then prioritize Arizona, Maine-02 and Nebraska-02, with Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin remaining priority.
Source is at Axios.
