… alternate realities are playing out in real time — reflected in Biden’s solid standing atop national polls versus his middling performance in Iowa and New Hampshire surveys on the other. The disparity is at once a source of frustration to Biden’s team and one of hope to rivals holding out for an utter collapse by the former vice president in the two earliest nominating states.
Nationally, the Real Clear Politics average shows Biden up by 7.7 percentage points; in at least half of recent polls, he’s leading by double digits. In Iowa and New Hampshire, however, it’s Warren who’s up — by 4.3 percentage points and 4 percentage points, respectively.
Some Democratic analysts don’t see the path as sustainable for Biden. If he has a poor showing in Iowa and then New Hampshire, the national outlook beyond that has little hope for Biden, according to the director of the Monmouth poll, which has shown Warren, Sanders and Biden nearly even for some time.
There are many explanations for the discrepancy, among them are Biden’s strength in the states with the most diversity, and underwhelming performances in general. Advertising by the Biden campaign has slowed, while Trump’s anti-Biden campaign has been ramping up, particularly on social media. To date, the Trump campaign has spent $287,000 on TV ads alone in Iowa, and more than that on Facebook and YouTube.
A long distance race, the first two states set the pace, and numbers can be expected to shift with scrutiny of the frontrunners. But according to a recent New York Times analyses, Democrats want a moderate nominee, and Biden leads Trump in every battleground state, where Warren would lose to or runs even with Trump in those same states.
“I think one of the things that isn’t covered in Democratic primaries, is the fact that this is actually a race for delegates,” Biden campaign manager Greg Schultz said on a recent donor call. “Looking at a national poll and general election, you want to see where are the battleground numbers. … By the time Super Tuesday is done, then we’re going to have a really good cross section of the Democratic Party in various regions.”
Schultz again managed expectations on Iowa. “I think because our coalition is so broad we’re the one campaign that does not have to win Iowa,” he said. “We feel we can win Iowa, we’re playing to win. Joe Biden is spending a lot of time there. But our faith is in that broad coalition.”
Source at Politico
Statistics from Real Clear Politics