WASHINGTON—The war in Ukraine has devastated Russia’s preinvasion military machine, with nearly 90% of its prewar army lost to death or injury, and thousands of battle tanks destroyed, according to a newly declassified U.S. intelligence assessment shared with Congress.
The intelligence assessment, according to a congressional source, says that 315,000 Russian personnel have been killed or injured since the February 2022 invasion, or about 87% of Moscow’s prewar force of 360,000.
Overall, it says, the war in Ukraine “has sharply set back 15 years of Russian effort to modernize its ground force. As of late November, Russia had lost over a quarter of its pre-2022 stockpile of ground forces equipment.”
T-62
Moscow’s equipment has also been crushed, according to the assessment. At the start of the war, Russia had 3,500 tanks but has lost 2,200, forcing them to pull 50 year old T-62 tanks from storage.
In the most recent push, Russia has suffered more than 13,000 people killed and wounded and lost more than 220 combat vehicles while fighting near Avdiivka and other cities, Ms. Watson said.
Russian forces had hoped for a swift breakthrough but encountered stiff Ukrainian resistance. Ukraine has moved forces from the south to reinforce its troops in the east. While Ukraine too has suffered causalities, its losses are not as significant as Russia’s, U.S. officials have said. Casualty figures on both sides of the conflict are estimates, according to American officials. Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, and Kyiv does not disclose official figures.
Other newly declassified intelligence previously reported by CNN suggests that “Russia seems to believe that a military deadlock through the winter will drain Western support for Ukraine and ultimately give Russia the advantage despite Russian losses and persistent shortages of trained personnel, munitions, and equipment,” according to a National Security Council spokesman.
Before the invasion, Russia had a total standing military of approximately 900,000 active-duty troops, including ground troops, airborne troops, special operations and other uniformed personnel, according to the CIA. Since the start of the invasion, Russia has announced plans to increase the size of the armed forces to 1.5 million. The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced several rounds of conscription, including its regular fall conscription cycle on October 1.
Russia has also leaned heavily on convicts marshaled to the fight by the Wagner Group and has increased the age limit for certain categories of citizens to remain in the reserve of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
Kyiv treats its losses as a state secret and officials say disclosing the figure could harm its war effort. A New York Times report in August cited U.S. officials as putting the Ukrainian death toll at close to 70,000.
Russia has a population around 3.5 times the size of Ukraine’s.
